Yankees ace and reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is headed for an MRI on his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday morning (X link via Newsday’s David Lennon). Cole hasn’t been recovering as well between throwing sessions and will get his elbow checked out to determine if there’s an injury at play. The imaging will take place today.
Boone refrained from giving any further information. The extent of the organization’s worry about a possible severe injury remains uncertain, although conducting imaging tests on a pitcher’s elbow is a foreboding indication. This holds especially true for the Yankees’ rotation, which cannot afford to lose their top pitcher. Admittedly, no team is prepared to endure the absence of a reigning Cy Young winner, but the pitchers following Cole are surrounded by a multitude of uncertainties.
Carlos Rodon’s first season with the Yankees under his six-year, $162MM contract was a complete disaster. After performing exceptionally well for two years with the White Sox and Giants, injuries limited him in 2023. He only made 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and ended up with a terrible 6.85 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates also took a nosedive, dropping to 22.4% and 9.8% from 33.9% and 7.1% in the previous two seasons.
Nestor Cortes Jr. was limited to 63 1/3 frames in 2023 due to a strained left rotator cuff. He had impressive sub-3.00 ERA campaigns in the two seasons before that. Despite maintaining strong strikeout and walk rates, Cortes became more fly-ball heavy, with grounders at a low 26% rate. His HR/9 mark increased from 0.91 to 1.56 in 2023. Although only 11% of his fly-balls left the yard, the high volume of balls in the air worked against him, resulting in a 1.45 HR/9 at home and 1.73 HR/9 on the road.
The Yankees have acquired Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract during the offseason in order to strengthen their rotation. However, Stroman’s previous season was plagued by injuries. Initially, he performed exceptionally well and was even considered for the NL Cy Young award in the early months of the ’23 season. Unfortunately, he experienced a decline in July and was subsequently placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. During his rehabilitation, it was discovered that he had fractures in his rib cartilage, which further delayed his return to the field. Although he managed to make a comeback for four games towards the end of the season, his performance was not up to par. Despite maintaining an impressive 2.88 ERA in his first 20 starts, Stroman struggled in the remaining 18 innings, allowing 26 runs (22 earned).
Right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt ranked second on the team in terms of both starts, with 32, and innings pitched, with 159. However, his performance was more characteristic of a back-end rotation player, largely due to his tendency to give up home runs. Schmidt appears capable of being a reliable innings eater this season, but he has yet to achieve the same level of success in the MLB as any of his fellow rotation members. The organization is optimistic that the former top prospect can progress further, but whether he can do so or not will be particularly crucial if it is discovered that Cole is dealing with a significant injury.
The depth beyond the top five players is even more uncertain. Luke Weaver, a seasoned player, signed a one-year, $2MM contract towards the end of the offseason and is likely to serve as a swingman. However, he might also step in to start games if Cole is unavailable. Despite performing admirably in three starts for the Yankees last season, Weaver struggled with a 6.40 ERA overall, marking the third time in four seasons that his ERA has exceeded 6.00.
On the farm, the Yankees have right-handed pitchers Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter, and Yoendrys Gomez on the 40-man roster. Gil is the only one with big league experience, and despite his impressive performance in 2021, he has only pitched 29 2/3 innings in the past two years due to Tommy John surgery. Prospect Will Warren had a successful year in 2023 between Double-A and Triple-A, but he is not yet on the 40-man roster. He is currently in camp as a non-roster invitee. Fellow prospects Chase Hampton and left-handed pitcher Tanner Tully were also non-roster invitees this spring, but they have already been reassigned to the minor league camp.
The mere possibility of Cole getting injured could spark rumors about free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who have both been linked to the Yankees during the offseason. The Yankees initially offered Snell a five-year deal before signing Stroman instead. Despite ongoing discussions with Snell, it seems unlikely due to the significant tax implications associated with signing either pitcher. The Yankees are repeat luxury tax offenders and are already facing the highest level of penalties. This means they will have to pay a 110% tax on top of any additional contract’s average annual value. For example, a $25MM AAV would result in a $27.5MM tax hit, while a $30MM AAV would lead to a $33MM tax hit, and so forth.
In the past, it seemed unlikely that the Yankees would spend so extravagantly with a fully healthy rotation. However, if Cole is out for a long time, it becomes more plausible for them to make a huge financial commitment. Snell has shown willingness to sign short-term contracts with high salaries and opt-out options, while Montgomery seems more interested in a longer-term deal. But as we approach Opening Day, it’s worth questioning how prepared either free agent would be. It’s also possible that they could explore the trade market, although the asking price for pitchers like Cease and Luzardo has been incredibly high this offseason, which is why there hasn’t been a trade for either of them.
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